Felix Chan et al on a Bayesian Approach to Developing a Stochastic Mortality Model for China (Journal of the Royal Statistical Society (Statistics in Society – Series A))

“A Bayesian Approach to Developing a Stochastic Mortality Model for China”

Johnny Siu-Hang Li, Kenneth Q Zhou, Xiaobai Zhu, Wai-Sum Chan and Felix WH Chan

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society (Statistics in Society – Series A)

2019, Vol 182, Issue 4, pp 1523–1560

Summary: Stochastic mortality models have a wide range of applications. For instance, in Hong Kong and England, multipliers used in the assessment of personal injury compensation are calculated using mortality rates from the most recent projections. However, owing to data-related problems, stochastic modelling of mainland Chinese mortality has not been given adequate attention. Stochastic mortality models are particularly important for analysing Chinese mortality, which is subject to rapid and uncertain changes. In this paper, we attempt to use a Bayesian approach to model the evolution of Chinese mortality over time, taking into account all of the problems associated with the data set.