Sherif Elgebeily on a 'Royal Rumble' in Syria

"A 'Royal Rumble' in Syria means yet more chaos for civilians"

Sherif Elgebeily (CCPL)
The Conversation
15 October 2015

As a child, I would eagerly await the annual World Wrestling Federation (now WWE) “Royal Rumble” – 30 of the best wrestlers, all in one ring, fighting it out in a lengthy and often brutal (and yes, scripted) affair over the course of hours to be the last man standing.

     The most entertaining part, I found, were the “stables” – groups of wrestlers who joined forces only to knock out stronger opponents like Andre the Giant. At the end of the showcase, when only a few wrestlers remained, the true agenda emerged. Any “stables” forged to get this far were tossed aside like prop chairs. Without a common enemy, the wrestlers turned on each other.

     In Syria, a disastrous “Royal Rumble” is now under way.

      While working on the Iraq Team of the UN Department of Political Affairs in 2008, I learned the importance of interstate cooperation in the pursuit of a shared goal. Having also researched the decision-making process of the UN Security Council, I am aware, too, of the failures that emerge when countries cannot reach mutual agreement.

United against ISIS

Russia’s military intervention to fight the Islamic State shares some of the common goals of the anti-Assad alliance involving the US, UK, Australia, Canada, France, Turkey and no less than six regional Arab States. All sides have already intervened to varying degrees with military force, bombing or supporting the bombing of targets each claims are strategic. But strategic to whom?

     On the surface, Russian strikes can be interpreted as a lifeline for Syria against the creeping lava of ISIS, which destroys everything in its path and stubbornly solidifies. After all, anyone bombing ISIS is good news, right?... Click here to read the full article.

Sherif Elgebeily on Russia's Involvement in the Syrian Conflict (SCMP)

"Western coalition risks going head to head with Russia in Syrian conflict"

Sherif Elgebeily (CCPL)

South China Morning Post

8 October 2015

It has been over a quarter of a century since the collapse of the USSR, the fall of the Berlin Wall and, accordingly, the thawing of the cold war that crippled international relations for decades in the mid-to-late 20th century. But it seems that Russia's decision to enter the war in Syria with military strikes - as opposed to simply bolstering and protecting President Bashar al-Assad on the international stage and supplying arms - has jolted East-West relations back to a time of high tensions.

     Syria looks set to become the battleground for a proxy war between titans: pro-Assad Russian forces and the anti-Assad Western coalition that includes the US, France and the UK.

     Syria therefore threatens to be more dangerous than the post-millennial wars in Iraq, Afghanistan or Ukraine, where foreign forces were fighting local militaries or populations. The conflict in Syria pits East against West in ways not seen since the Korean or Vietnam wars.

     For Syria, its population, its heritage and its infrastructure, a proxy war would be catastrophic - it is yet more calamity to add to the existing menaces of Assad and Islamic State

     Under the guise of fighting Islamic State, both sides have intervened with military force, bombing targets each claims are strategically linked to the group. Yet despite superficial US-Russian talks on deconfliction of Syrian airspace last week, designed to avoid overlap in operations and mid-air collisions, the first Russian strikes not only targeted areas that were not affiliated with Islamic State, but focused on the US-backed Syrian opposition fighters that pose a threat to Assad instead. 

     Indeed, Russian President Vladimir Putin has said Russian forces are in Syria to rescue the Assad administration. There can be no doubt as to the motives behind Russia’s intervention....

     Russia's intervention in Syria is legally sound under international law. Russian chief of staff Sergei Ivanov has stated that the Assad government explicitly requested Russian military assistance.

     From a Russian standpoint, it may also be politically sound; with a military base in Tartus dating back to the era of the Soviet Union, and a historic Russian-Syrian alliance spanning over four decades back to Assad's father Hafez, Russia's last strategic bastion outside the former USSR is worth protecting.... Click here to read the full article.